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AAA News and Safety

Thanksgiving Forecast Points to Travel Recovery

Phoenix, Ariz., November 18, 2009. With the Thanksgiving holiday just over a week away, hundreds of thousands of Arizonans will soon be taking to the roads and skies. According to the auto club, statewide travel for the upcoming holiday is projected to remain relatively flat from last year’s levels, indicating a gradual recovery in the travel industry.

According to the forecast, 683,000 Arizonans are slated to travel 50 or more miles from home over the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday. This represents a drop of less than one percent, or 6,000 fewer travelers, compared to Thanksgiving 2008. Nationwide, 38.4 million Americans will travel over the holiday weekend, an increase of 1.4 percent – or 548,000 more travelers – compared to holiday figures from last year.


“Last year, in the wake of the housing and financial crisis, statewide Thanksgiving travel dropped by more than 20 percent compared to the prior year,” said Don Gleason, vice president of travel for AAA Arizona. “While statewide travel is forecasted to drop again slightly over the upcoming holiday weekend, this change represents a drastic reversal from the prior year, indicating signs of recovery in the travel industry.”  

The table below illustrates projected 2009 Thanksgiving travel compared to 2008:


Thanksgiving 2009

Overall Travelers

Auto Travelers

Air Travelers

Misc. Travelers

Total United States

38.4 million

33.2 million

2.3 million

2.9 million

Change from Last Year (U.S.)

+1.4 percent

+2.1 percent

-6.7 percent

+1.2 percent

Total Arizona

683,000

581,000

59,000

43,000

Change from Last Year (Ariz.)

-0.8 percent

No Change

-9.4 percent

No Change

The auto club’s forecast also reveals average trip spending and distance. The table below illustrates the nationwide averages compared to Arizona’s averages in both of these categories:

Thanksgiving 2009

Average Spending

Average Round-Trip Distance

Total United States

$718

815 miles

Total Arizona

$677

661 miles


While fewer last minute deals are available over the upcoming holiday, those traveling will spend less in most areas compared to last year, according to AAA’s Leisure Travel Index. The table below illustrates the change in travel related costs from Thanksgiving 2008:


Travel Cost

Thanksgiving Weekend 2008

Thanksgiving
Weekend 2009

Change from
Last Year

AAA Three Diamond Hotel

$144

$128

-11 percent

AAA Two Diamond Hotel

$105

$92

-13 percent

Airfare

$176

$170

-4 percent

Car Rental

$45

$44

-3 percent

Arizona Gas Price (per gallon)

$1.967

$2.593 (to date)

+32 percent


“Given the holiday’s focus on family, Thanksgiving is consistently one of the busiest travel periods every year,” said Gleason. “The nature of the holiday affords travelers the opportunity to economize by staying with family and friends rather than spending on lodging options.”

Thanksgiving travelers can also save by using taking advantage of AAA Discount program, which helped members save an average of $101 last year. Motorists can use free tools to help them plan and save, such as AAA’s Fuel Cost Calculator as well as the auto club’s TripTik® Travel Planner. Travelers can also download AAA’s free iPhone Apps, AAA Discounts, which displays retail locations of AAA’s discount program partners near user locations and AAA Roadside, which helps motorists who experience a vehicle failure summon the auto club’s legendary roadside service.

AAA has been reporting on holiday travel trends for more than two decades. Research for Thanksgiving holiday travel projections derived from a survey of 1,350 American households by IHS Global Insight, which conducts special research for AAA. For purposes of this forecast, the holiday travel period is defined as travel of 50 miles or more away from home from Wednesday, November 25 to Sunday, November 29.

AAA Arizona, the Arizona affiliate of AAA, provides automotive, insurance and auto travel services to nearly 800,000 Arizona members. Annually, AAA’s Emergency Road Service responds to more than 450,000 calls for help on the streets and highways of the state as well as providing insurance, travel, and financial services to AAA members and motorists. Since its founding in 1927, AAA Arizona has been a leading advocate for the safety and security of all travelers. In 2008, AAA was ranked the No. 1 “socially responsible” brand by Landor’s BrandAsset® Valuator.

 
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